HowviolenteventsandautocraticpartiestriggerdemocraticchangeHowdodemocraciesemerge?ShocktotheSystempresentsanoveltheoryofdemocratizationthatfocusesonhoweventslikecoups,wars,andelectionsdisruptautocraticregimesandtriggerdemocraticchange.Employingthebroadestqualitativeandquantitativeanalysesofdemocratizationtodate,MichaelMillerdemonstratesthatmorethannineintentransitionssince1800occurinoneoftwoways:countriesdemocratizefollowingamajorviolentshockoranestablishedrulingpartydemocratizesthroughelectionsandregainspowerwithindemocracy.Thisframeworkfundamentallyreorientstheoriesondemocratizationbyshowingthatviolentupheavalsandthepreservationofautocratsinpower--eventstypicallyviewedasantitheticaltodemocracy--areinfactcentraltoitsfoundation.Throughin-depthexaminationsof139democratictransitions,Millershowshowdemocratizationfrequentlyfollowsbothdomesticshocks(coups,civilwars,andassassinations)andinternationalshocks(defeatinwarandwithdrawalofanautocratichegemon)duetoautocraticinsecurityandopeningsforoppositionactors.Healsoshowshowtransitionsguidedbyrulingpartiesspringfromtheirelectoralconfidenceindemocracy.Bothcontextslimitthepowerautocratssacrificebyacceptingdemocratization,smoothingalongthetransition.Millerprovidesnewinsightsintodemocratization’spredictors,thelimitedgainsfromeventsliketheArabSpring,thebestroutestodemocratizationforlong-termstability,andthefutureofglobaldemocracy.Disputingcommonlyheldideasaboutviolenteventsandtheireffectsondemocracy,ShocktotheSystemoffersnewperspectivesonhowregimesaretransformed.
